From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Mon Jan 07 2002 - 06:32:38 MST
On Sun, 6 Jan 2002, Samantha Atkins wrote:
> Well, a full scale exchange of nuclear arsenal would definitely
> put Singularity on hold "indefintely" on this planet.
I believe its been fairly well documented that even a full
scale exchange would leave sufficient infrastructure standing
that it wouldn't extinct humanity. In particular submarines
and all the technology they contain would likely survive.
There would be a brief dip in the curve but I expect recovery
would take 50 years or less (witness the progress of the 20th
century -- say from 1900 to 1950). It would happen faster since
recovery of a technological capability is probably more rapid
if you know that it is feasible beforehand.
I've thought about the survivability issue quite a bit and I'm
more optimistic than I once was. The threat from Gamma Ray
Bursts is much greater than NEOs or nuclear war (astro-ph/0110162).
Fortunately it looks like we may be safe from them through the
next century or so (unless there is an O or B class star nearby
we are unaware of). So I think the singularity is a go.
Robert
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