Kurzweil Predicts

From: J. R. Molloy (jr@shasta.com)
Date: Sun Feb 25 2001 - 10:39:12 MST

Looks like Ray is very bullish. --J. R.

The Singularity is Near
A Book Précis, by Raymond Kurzweil
But wait a second, you said that I would get $40 trillion if I read and
understood this précis .

That's right. According to my models, if we replace the linear outlook
with the more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should
triple. Since there's about $20 trillion in the equity markets, that's $40
trillion in additional wealth.

But you said I would get that money.

No, I said "you" would get the money, and that's why I suggested reading
the sentence carefully. The English word "you" can be singular or plural.
I meant it in the sense of "all of you."

I see, all of us as in the whole world. But not everyone will read this
précis .

Well, but everyone could. So if all of you read this précis and understand
it, then economic expectations would be based on the historical
exponential model, and thus stock values would increase.

You mean if everyone understands it, and agrees with it.

Okay, I suppose I was assuming that.

Is that what you expect to happen.

Well, actually, no. Putting on my futurist hat again, my prediction is
that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and more
evidence of the exponential nature of technology and its impact on the
economy becomes apparent. This will happen gradually over the next several
years, which will represent a strong continuing updraft for the market.

Stay hungry,

--J. R.

Useless hypotheses: consciousness, phlogiston, philosophy, vitalism, mind,
free will

Attain nirvana, and suddenly questions about whether machines can attain
nirvana disappear.
--Benjamin Brainfarts

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