In a message dated 2/19/01 11:13:32 AM, firstname.lastname@example.org writes:
>My guess is that the same thing will happen with age specific mortality.
>We will enter a new regime in which the decreases in the past of about
>1% per year in mortality may increase to 10% or more per year due to
>a breakthrough in knowledge. Biology researchers often claim that the
>advent of genomics will be so dramatic as to represent a new paradigm
>for knowledge growth, so a breakthrough is plausible.
Of course you can't say for sure that we'll break the curve. But, certainly,
there are many major developments in the pipeline which at least *could*
cause major improvements in lifespan, including neoorganogenesis,
the anti-glycosylation agent ALT-711, cyborgization of joints and bones,
and now the possibility of a "calorie restriction" pill with the SIR research.
Possibly, all 4 could be operational in 20 years. So while it's true we've
not proved we can break the curve of previous lifespan extension, no-one
can legitimately say it's "impossible" or even "highly unlikely". Also, these
possibilities in general are not plausible through standard evolutionary
scenarios so you can't even say "it's been tried and failed".
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b30 : Mon May 28 2001 - 09:56:45 MDT