E. Shaun Russell wrote:
> Mez wrote:
> >2) Rate of computational power growth. In _Age of Spiritual Machines_
> >(my copy is also on loan so I will again go out on a limb) Kurzweil
> >projects computational power growing by a factor of 10^3 every decade.
> Wrong again. From page 105: "...the capacity of computing will double ten
> times every decade, which is a factor of one thousand (2^10) every ten
2^10 = 1024, 10^3 = 1000, roughly equivalent. It's a good rule of thumb in
IT (2^10 approx equals 10^3).
Moore's law is usually modified to be somewhere between doubling every 2 or
1.5 years. That's maybe 6 or 7 doublings in a decade at best, which is a
factor of about 100, or 10^2.
But maybe Kurzweil means the future, given different parameters from today.
I don't know; haven't read the book.
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