Let's see, by reasoning from past experience:
TRANSMETA:
The hype: Transmeta, a top-secret project employing supergenius Linus
Torvalds, will come out of nowhere and completely blow away the entire
integrated-circuit industry.
The reality: They're working on a new kind of chip which can be more
easily programmed to emulate multiple instruction-set architectures, which
is being pitched for portable and integrated devices due to lower power
consumption.
IT:
The hype: They'll redesign cities around it.
The reality (assuming a similar stepdown from Transmeta): A new kind of
fuel cell with substantially increased efficiency, which will be initially
targeted at mopeds.
-- -- -- -- --
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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