Re: World Peace Via Old Men

Date: Thu Jan 04 2001 - 17:01:44 MST

Robin writes:
> War casualties may
> fall by a factor of three per decade for the next few decades,
> because there will be fewer young men relative to old men.

The data seems to be non "longitudinal", that is, it compares different
countries within a specific time period. We know from epidemiology and
other disciplines that crosswise comparisons like this don't always work
when turned into longitudinal predictions.

I'd like to know whether the formula works when extrapolated backwards
in time. What were MAR levels in the early 20th and late 19th centuries?
How did they compare to war deaths? I suspect that the correlation
is going to break down, because I believe more of the population was
youthful in the 19th century, but war deaths were lower.


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