This assumes that the bulk of the casualties from war are soldiers rather
than civilians. In recent times this has not necessarily been the case.
In the gulf war, for example, roughly 100,000 Iraqi troops were killed.
However, the fallout of the resulting embargo has resulted in 500,000 or
more preventable deaths.
Also, given a continuing trend towards more automated and long distance
weapons, and towards necessary destruction of the enemy's command and
control infrastructure (e.g., Iraq, Serbia), civilians seem increasingly at
From: Robin Hanson
http://hanson.gmu.edu/worldpeace.html War casualties may
fall by a factor of three per decade for the next few decades,
because there will be fewer young men relative to old men.
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