This is always true of visionary proposals, whether by science fiction
writers or people named Seward. What characterizes the late twentieth and
early twenty-first century is a remarkable falling back from the dreams of
the Apollo decades (post World War 2). We're waiting for something to happen
before we make the next leap, and I believe this something is a convincing
model not just for economics in space, but for maintaining biological
processes in space (one and the same thing, in my view!).
A lot of people--many of them friends--are working hard to lower costs to
orbit. NEO is already a proven money maker for some. But as Joe Carroll
pointed out, we haven't done the complete closed loop habitat experiments
necessary to convince anybody that we can survive for a couple of years in
space without help from Earth. This is the biological equivalent of cutting
lose from suppliers of venture capital; breaking even, paying off debts, or
making a profit!
When the culture as a whole is presented with convincing evidence for
solutions to these hard practicalities, the visionaries will be back in
favor.
Best wishes!
Greg Bear
I wrote:
>Space projects now also seem a waste to
>me; until costs are low enough to allow economies to
>flourish in space, it's just money down the drain.
Greg Bear wrote:
>Against my grain, I also must nod my head, despite years of space
>proselytizing, on Robin's grim assessment of space exploration. Spiritually
>edifying, scientifically fascinating, but that has never cut the cake for
>too long. Still, some clever economic models and justifications could let
us
>convince government and entrepeneurs that space money (beyond Near Earth
>Orbit, already profitable) is seed money, a general Geritol boost for the
>whole economy. Might even be true.
Someday space really will be ready to make a profit on. When
people like us approach funders (private and public) to suggest
projects, will they reply "that's what you science fiction sorts
have been saying for over X decades; you've been dead wrong
so far, so why should we believe you now"? Fooling funders into
paying for profitless things now may cost us real big later,
when it really counts.
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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