(((Rifkinite? Don't think so.)))
From: Adam Rifkin -4K <adam@XeNT.ics.uci.edu>
I occasionally post these when I pop my head up from the gopherhole just
to remind myself that
(1) Everyone still truly believes in the stock market, and therefore
(2) The mania will keep on going for the foreseeable future.
You had to see the looks on the faces of the thousand attendants of
Garage.com's Entrepreneur Boot Camp this week -- they were all
singleminded, true believers ready to go out and kill or die for the
opportunity to plant their flag in the ground.
Garage.com is certainly doing its part: 9500 business plans reviewed
last year, 60 plans funded. After seeing the successes of companies
like CMGi and Kleiner Perkins and Softbank and idealab (first wave), and
now companies like Garage.com and LoudCloud and ePhibian and eBuilt
(second wave), I get the feeling that 10,000 "Vanity Venture Capital
Funds" will pop up over the next five years with every decimillionaire
and higher contributing funds to kitties to seed all kinds of ideas
starting up. As long as the "virtuous cycle" continues where everyone
keeps pumping most of the proceeds back into the system, the system
could last for a *very* long time. After all, tulipmania lasted in
Holland for nearly four decades before finally collapsing in 1637.
Of course, our stock market is truly nuts. Stocks regularly double in
just a week or two. (The biotech index alone is up nearly 100% in the
past three months, and that's an *index*.) Sometimes the stocks are
legitimate turnaround stories like Information Architects (IARC), which
has twenty bagged in about a half a year now that their story is crisper
thanks to excellent public relations where there were none before. I
admire that kind of rising-like-the-phoenix.
Then there are companies climbing into corporate shells like
Xcelera.com, whose Mirror Image technology was recently embraced by
George Gilder. The 52-week low on XLA is less than a dollar. Today it
closed at 352. That's a five hundred bagger in less than a year, for
those keeping track at home. With a P/E ratio of 3057, it will only
take Xcelera three millennia to make its current market cap in profits
(roughly $9.3 billion). Another reverse-merger stock, Sensar (SCII),
which I've mentioned here before, is running again on the hype of its
Net2Wireless brand name, though sadly it has only fifty-bagged in a
year, and its PE is a mere 162, which is less than Cisco's PE of 181.
Think about that, it will take almost 200 years of Cisco's current
earnings to make its current market cap -- roughly $450 billion. Cisco
is threatening to pass Microsoft's market cap ($473 billion) and become
"the most valuable company in the world", though it's hard to tell which
company will be the first to have a market cap of $1 trillion: one of
those two, or maybe Nokia, AOL/Time Warner, or perhaps even Worldcom if
they buy, say, Mannesman and Akamai. My bet for the first trillion
dollar company is Softbank, which currently is worth $210 billion; if it
doubles again, Msr. Son will be worth more on paper than Bill Gates.
Spinoffs are getting to the point of insanity. 3Com is raising nearly a
billion dollars by spinning off Palm tomorrow -- a company it only
ACQUIRED three years ago in the U.S. Robotics merger that tanked its
stock. 3Com's stock was selling as low as $20 a share last year but it
hit almost $120 a share today on news of this spinoff -- the worst part
is, that obnoxious Metcalfe fellow probably still owns shares. Of
course, acquisitions-cum-spinoffs are speeding up nowadays: CMGi bought
AltaVista in June for $2.2 billion and is spinning it off for $4 billion
sometime in the next month or two. That's entertainment. It's getting
to the point that a stock that has a bunch of crappy financials spins
off the part with the crappy financials (like, say, Sprint PCS),
because the companies that do best in a market such as this are the ones
with no earnings (they're "investing in growth"). Last year Hewlett
Packard finally got a clue and spun off Agilent, which has since
tripled; now Lucent, which ITSELF is a spinoff, finally got a clue and
is planning on pulling *its* stock out of the crapper by spinning off
its "slower moving division" (see the attachment below).
So the bubble could expand for a very long time to come. Three years,
five years, maybe ten years or more. Retail investors keep buying the
dips and wholesale buyers and sellers are making a fortune off the
aggregate. The Nasdaq is within spitting distance of 5000 (see below)
-- it's just a matter of time before it passes the Dow at this rate.
Garage.com is particularly savvy: collect a thousand bucks from a
thousand attendees at a time (though we .edu attendees got away at a
mere $300 a pop), get all these popular law and accounting firms to fund
the food and tschotsches, bring on all kinds of lawyers and VCs and
angels and entrepreneurs to motivate and inspire and encourage with
their lectures and panels, and then sit back and take your pick of the
best groups to submit their plans to you in search of incubation.
Kawasaki is an amazing salesman, and Garage.com like many dot coms is in
the business of selling its stock: they recently filed their S-1 and
will go public in the spring. Unfortunately they, like other paper
centimillionaires will have to wait until their lockup period ends
before they can become liquid and retire. Fortunately there's lots of
work to be done between now and then, because when you're in the
business of selling your stock, you gotta ABC: Always Be Closing.
And I'm telling you, watching the sheep at Garage.com's Boot Camp,
EVERYONE has the bug and everyone has it bad. Work hard, the theory
goes, and you too can get rich quick: it's like everyone has memorized
all the words to the movie Wall Street just like the frat boys in the
movie Boiler Room sitting in front of their big screen television
reciting Michael Douglas' and Charlie Sheen's lines.
It's helpful to remember that just in mid October the Nasdaq Composite
was around 2600, and now it's almost at 4800. A hundred newsletters
like the one below make the average person think that they too can own a
little bit of the entrepreneur's dream if they manage to catch a ride on
a hot stock. Or two. Or a dozen. Or more.
The inflation in certain stocks in the market seems to dovetail the
inflation in certain real estate in the country. Between their homes,
their 401k's, and their portfolios, people *feel* richer. They really
do. Engineers no longer suffer at startups: in addition to equity they
can get six-figure salaries in *cash*. It really is an unbelievably
great time in America to be an entrepreneur -- I'm not sure
opportunities like this have ever existed to this extent before.
And there's a new upper class rising in society: the technological
elite. It really is shifting the power structure, and you can feel it:
lawyers, accountants, bankers, and finance guys know that they can no
longer call all of the shots, because the techies now have money and
lots of it. It's like our ultimate revenge for all the years of
suffering being a nerd causes to oneself in one's formative years when
one's peers are far less accepting of technical savvy. I wonder what
we'll think about the year 2000 in ten or twenty years. I wonder what
seeds for the future are being planted today. I am *really* curious to
know how this will all play out.
Who knows. Sometimes it's best to keep the blinders on.
And maybe, just maybe, greed *is* good...
> From xsubs@optioninvestor.com Wed Mar 1 19:29:10 2000
> Date: Wed, 1 Mar 2000 20:15:52 -0700
> Subject: Wednesday - Option Investor Newsletter 1 of 1
> The Option Investor Newsletter Wednesday 3-1-2000
> Posted online for subscribers at http://WWW.OPTIONINVESTOR.COM
> Also provided as a service to The Online Investor Advantage
> ******************************************************************
> MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment)
> ******************************************************************
> 3-1-2000 High Low Volume Advance Decline
> DOW 10137.90 + 9.60 10186.30 10084.60 1,274,100k 1,558 1,481
> Nasdaq 4784.08 + 87.39 4796.90 4696.69 2,232,343k 2,425 1,846
> S&P-100 743.54 + 4.90 748.41 738.64 Totals 3,983 3,327
> S&P-500 1379.19 + 12.77 1383.46 1366.83 54.4% 45.6%
> $RUT 588.35 + 10.64 589.38 577.71
> $TRAN 2397.77 + 8.91 2400.78 2380.02
> VIX 23.68 - 1.91 24.91 23.22
> Put/Call Ratio .45
> *******************************************************************
> Nasdaq 5,000, More Than Just A Dream
> At this point, you almost have to figure traders will want to
> make a run at the next milestone. And who can blame them?
> This tech-driven market continues to trek higher despite the
> Dow's lackluster performance. It is possible that today's
> weak performance in the Dow is just more evidence that investors
> are leaving on any rally to head for technology issues. The
> Nasdaq has been filled with opportunities and the outlook is
> still bright. Today was another example of how playable the
> Nasdaq is too, with an open near 4750 and three intraday bounces
> off that support mark. You could have stepped into entry points
> at any one of those dips. This is really becoming a broken
> record with the Nasdaq dipping to support only to rise once
> again. The question now is, do we have enough juice to propel
> the Nasdaq to 5K this week? Today's close at 4784.32, +87.68
> leaves us just under 5% away.
> The Dow Industrials is another, less enthusiastic, story. It
> is trying to break a month and a half downtrend. Today saw a
> tight range between 10084 and 10186 We closed the session near
> the middle at 10136.38, +8.07. The key here is for the Dow to
> close solidly over the 10-dma, currently at 10,206. This has
> been the resistance since mid-January that traders have been
> selling on. The old bear trap scenario. Just when you think
> it has the momentum to punch above that moving average, SNAP,
> it's got you. I'm still not real keen on this index until we
> see one or two day's closing over this mark. Some are acting
> as if this will never happen with the "new economy" taking over.
> In fact, it will eventually free itself from this rut, but there
> is no point testing the waters on some of these between down
> issues until it does. Especially when you can find all the
> hot stocks you want in the SOX, Russell 2000 or the previously
> mentioned Nasdaq.
>
> Speaking of the SOX, even after a more than one hundred point
> move on Tuesday, it still managed to gain another 1.72. This
> sector continues to leave the general market in the dust. The
> other hot sectors of the day included Biotech, Internet,
> Networking and Hardware. Even the Online Brokers put together
> their third straight advance on positive comments about how much
> trading we are all doing. Some analysts are looking for 30-40%
> from last quarter in trading activity.
> The market internals were also good. Volume was strong at over
> 2.2 billion shares on the Nasdaq and over 1.27 billion on the NYSE.
> The advance/decline line was even on the NYSE, while Gainers beat
> advancers 24 to 19 on the Nasdaq. The 30-year bond fell slightly
> to yield 6.16 by the close.
> The newswires were abuzz with big news from the telecoms today.
> It was announced that SBC Communications and BellSouth could be
> engaged in talks to merge their cellular services. Shares of
> SBC closed up $3.63 at $41.38 and BLS finished the session at
> $43, up $2.44.
> Also in the news today, Lucent announced plans to spin off three
> of it's slower growing businesses including data, cabling, and
> call-accounting to form one company, which is expected to be
> available to shareholders in September. Lucent is taking this
> action in order to narrow the focus to the communications
> networking portion of it's business. This announcement seemed
> to help alleviate some investor concern regarding Lucent's
> rather slow growth rate. LU's communications networking
> business accounted for roughly $30 billion of Lucent's $38.3
> billion of sales last year. Wall Street greeted the
> announcement with enthusiasm as nearly 75 million shares
> were traded in comparison to the average 18. Lucent closed
> the session up $9.13 at $68.63.
> And we are not done with the telecoms just yet. Shares of
> Qwest Communications (Q) were up $11.38 on the news of a
> possible buyout by Germany's Deutsche Telekom. Qwest spokesman
> Matt Barkett, claimed that the reports were nothing but rumors
> and speculation. Deutsche Telekom offered no comment.
> It was another big day for 3Com Corp. (COMS) as investors
> continued to snatch up shares in anticipation of tomorrow's
> Palm IPO. Palm is the number 1 manufacturer of electronic
> organizers. The expected offering price for Palm is $38,
> which has been raised from the original $14 proposed offering
> price. COMS traded up to another new 52-week high of $119.75
> in today's session.
> Shares of Aetna were halted today following the announcement
> that the Health Insurance Giant has received an unsolicited
> offer from WellPoint Health Networks and ING America Insurance
> Holdings in a cash and stock deal worth approximately $10
> billion. Apparently, ING and WellPoint first expressed their
> interest beginning discussions on the deal in a letter dated
> February 24th. Aetna commented that they will be reviewing
> the offer.
> The future of this market still sounds like a broken record.
> The Nasdaq is where the action is at for those looking to be
> long the market. The Dow has provided as much volatility of
> late, but the trend is still lower, although may be coming to
> an end. A nice retest of last week's lows followed by a bounce
> which can close above the 10-dma might be just what the Dow
> needs. Hopefully it can curb this downtrend without another
> panic event to the downside. But if it does cause investors
> to sell and pull down the other markets like the Nasdaq, I
> will be hunting for entry points. Earnings season just isn't
> that far off anymore. Dips in the Biotech, Semis, and the
> old reliable Internets (still sounds strange) is where I will
> be focusing my efforts.
> **********
> STOCK NEWS
> **********
> Lucent Rises from the Ashes on Spin-Off Plans
> By Cindy Christ
> Lucent Technologies rose from the dead Wednesday, but some
> analysts were warning that its meteoric rise could be short
> lived.
> Lucent (LU) plunged 23 percent Jan. 7 after the world's No. 1
> telecommunications equipment maker warned that its profits
> would fall below expectations by up to 25 percent, in part
> because it couldn't meet demand for optical networking and
> other fiber optic products.
> On Wednesday, Lucent breathed new life into its stagnant share
> price by announcing it would spin off slower expanding
> divisions into an independent company to focus on the fastest-
> growing areas of its business.
> Shares of Lucent, the most widely held U.S. stock, were up
> $12.50, or 21 percent, at $72 midday and were the Big Board's
> most active issue with 61 million shares trading hands.
> Intraday, Lucent traded as high as $75.38.
> Lucent said the new company, which is as yet unnamed, will
> concentrate on enterprise networking products and services,
> including telephone switchboards, cabling systems and data-
> based Local Area Networks.
> Lucent said the new $8 billion company would rank No. 1 or
> No. 2 in most of the markets in which it competes, starting
> out with a blue-chip customer list including 90 percent of
> Fortune 500 companies and 34,000 employees worldwide.
> Under the spin-off, which is expected to close by Sept. 30,
> shares in the new company will be distributed tax free to
> Lucent shareowners.
> "By spinning off our PBS, SYSTIMAX cabling and LAN-based data
> businesses, we are sharpening Lucent's focus and creating
> another leading company to serve business customers," said
> Lucent Technologies chairman and CEO Richard McGinn in a
> statement.
> "Lucent will concentrate greater resources on fast-growing
> areas like optical networking, Internet infrastructure,
> wireless, semiconductors, optoelectronics, Web-based
> enterprise solutions linking private to public networks, and
> professional design and consulting services for service
> providers and enterprises," he added.
> McGinn said that current Lucent executive vice president and
> chief financial officer Donald Peterson has been named
> president and CEO of the new company.
> Before coming to Lucent, Peterson ran the enterprise
> networking business for Canada's Nortel Networks (NT).
> After the spin-off, each company will have its own brand,
> board of directors and research and development organizations.
> Murray Hill, N.J.-based Lucent will have about 116,000 workers
> worldwide and 1999 sales of $30 billion.
> In recent months Lucent also has been considering a tracking
> stock for its optical networking unit. Market watchers say a
> decision could come by the end of this quarter.
> Initial reaction to the spin-off on Wall Street was mostly
> positive, but late in the session a leading investment bank
> was alerting investors that concerns about Lucent's upcoming
> quarter could pop Wednesday's bubble.
> SG Cowen analyst Christopher Stix raised his rating Wednesday
> on Lucent shares to "buy" from "neutral."
> "The spin-off will help increase the growth profile of the
> company and improve operating margins," said Stix.
> Analysts said that while margins would increase, the spin-off
> wouldn't affect Lucent's earnings.
> According to CNBC financial television, Goldman Sachs issued a
> warning to clients Wednesday, saying that Lucent's March
> quarter is at risk and that earnings projections may be
> lowered from current levels.
> Unlike chief rival Nortel Networks, Lucent has struggled
> to transition its business from providing equipment for voice-
> based communications systems to meet exploding demand for
> high-speed Internet and data networking gear.
> **********************
> PLAY OF THE DAY - CALL
> **********************
> VERT - VerticalNet, Inc. $229.63 +9.63 (+3.88 this week)
> VerticalNet owns and operates 55 industry-specific Web sites
> designed as online business-to-business communities, known as
> vertical trade communities. These vertical trade communities
> provide users with comprehensive sources of information,
> interaction and e-commerce. They are grouped into the following
> industry sectors: ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES, COMMUNICATIONS,
> ENVIRONMENTAL, FOOD AND PACKAGING, FOODSERVICE AND HOSPITALITY,
> HEALTHCARE/SCIENCE, MANUFACTURING AND METALS, PROCESS, PUBLIC
> SECTOR, SERVICE, TEXTILES AND APPAREL. Additionally, VerticalNet
> provides auctions, catalogs, bookstores, career services and
> other e-commerce capabilities horizontally across its communities
> with sites like Industry Deals.com, IT CareerHub.com, LabX.com,
> Professional Store.com. VerticalNet's NECX Exchange provides an
> exchange for the electronic components industry.
> Latest Write Up
> While we might loudly complain that volume fell off a cliff
> and the price didn't move relative the rest of the tech issues
> in the last two trading days, that could actually be a blessing.
> The low volume of roughly half the ADV of 1.4 mln shares says
> that traders are not interested in dumping VERT shares either
> and we may have found a higher low following the solid bounce
> off previous long-term support of $200. It now appears support
> is holding well at $215-$216. Use that as your target for what
> will likely be the best entry. If you'd rather see a breakout
> before taking a position, then $225 backed up with an increase
> in volume is your number. Still helping to drive this play
> going forward will be the 2:1 split, which will take effect
> after the close on March 31. You still have plenty of time
> for a good entry, so wait for VERT to come to you. With the
> rest of the market moving forward though, the probability of
> VERT remaining at these levels for long diminishes. Earnings
> are not a factor again until May.
> Comments
> Well, if you were waiting for that breakout mentioned above,
> today was your day. VERT posted an impressive $9.63 gain and
> had some nice volume backing the move. As we mentioned, there
> is still plenty of time to get on board for the split run, so
> do not be hasty with your entry points. Watch for the $225
> level to continue to hold. VERT looks to have additional
> support between $214 and $216, which could hold on a pullback
> and provide some nice possible points of entry. VERT may
> encounter a bit of immediate resistance at $230, so watch for
> VERT to move through this level.
> BUY CALL MAR-210 ERW-CB OI= 290 at $32.00 SL=25.00
> BUY CALL MAR-220 ERW-CD OI= 649 at $30.00 SL=23.50
> BUY CALL MAR-230*URE-CF OI=1498 at $20.00 SL=15.50
> BUY CALL APR-220 ERW-DD OI= 611 at $38.75 SL=30.25
> BUY CALL APR-230 URE-DF OI= 346 at $38.75 SL=30.25
> Picked on Feb 24th at $221.00 P/E = N/A
> Change since picked +8.63 52-week high=$289.56
> Analysts Ratings 4-6-3-0-0 52-week low =$ 17.50
> Last earnings 02/00 est=-0.36 actual=-0.28
> Next earnings 05-02 est=-0.45 versus=-0.19
> Average Daily Volume = 1.4 mln
> http://www.optioninvestor.com/charts/charts.asp?symbol=VERT
> *************************************
> BIG COVERED CALLS & NAKED PUT SECTION
> *************************************
> The question remains: Who will lead?
> Will the NASDAQ lead the DOW up or will the DOW lead the NASDAQ
> into the cellar? Time will tell. With conservative yet favorable
> "in-the-money" positions, time is our friend!
> Summary of Previous Picks:
> Covered Calls: (Margin would double the listed Monthly Return)
> Stock Strike Strike Cost Current Profit Monthly
> Symbol Month Price Basis Price (Loss) Return
> SCMR MAR 95 89.31 169.03 $5.69 6.5%
> INKT MAR 125 119.63 141.06 $5.37 5.9%
> LWIN MAR 80 75.63 88.50 $4.37 5.9%
> NEON MAR 55 52.00 89.94 $3.00 5.8%
> INSP MAR 145 135.56 238.00 $9.44 5.7%
> CRA MAR 130 124.62 235.50 $5.38 5.7%
> ITVU MAR 105 98.25 158.56 $6.75 5.6%
> SMTC MAR 55 52.75 63.88 $2.25 5.6%
> CHINA MAR 95 90.12 123.63 $4.88 5.5%
> TIBX MAR 65 61.79 130.13 $3.20 5.3% Split 3 - 1
> FIBR MAR 55 51.75 141.94 $3.25 5.2%
> BVSN MAR 170 163.62 256.31 $6.38 5.2%
> ENTU MAR 65 61.88 93.88 $3.12 5.1%
> PUMA MAR 95 91.50 167.00 $3.50 5.1%
> IMNX MAR 130 122.50 219.00 $7.50 5.0%
> MUSE MAR 87 82.50 159.75 $4.50 4.5% Split 2 - 1
> DITC MAR 62 58.94 111.06 $3.07 4.3% Split 2 - 1
> Naked Puts:
> Stock Strike Strike Cost Current Profit Monthly
> Symbol Month Price Basis Price (Loss) Return
> SCMR MAR 85 81.50 169.03 $3.50 13.3%
> BVSN MAR 160 156.25 256.31 $3.75 10.9%
> NEON MAR 50 48.44 89.94 $1.56 10.9%
> CRA MAR 120 117.19 235.50 $2.81 10.3%
> PUMA MAR 90 87.87 167.00 $2.13 10.1%
> MUSE MAR 82 80.19 159.75 $2.32 9.9% Split 2 - 1
> ENTU MAR 60 58.31 93.88 $1.69 9.8%
> CHINA MAR 85 82.62 123.63 $2.38 9.3%
> INSP MAR 130 125.37 238.00 $4.63 9.3%
> LWIN MAR 70 68.19 88.50 $1.81 9.1%
> ITVU MAR 105 102.94 158.56 $2.06 8.9%
> TIBX MAR 58 56.83 130.13 $1.50 8.5% Split 3 - 1
> HLIT MAR 95 92.50 140.88 $2.50 7.4%
> INKT MAR 110 108.37 141.06 $1.63 7.3%
> VRSN MAR 185 182.25 251.13 $2.75 7.1%
> MRVC MAR 70 69.06 155.88 $0.94 5.9%
> PROX MAR 80 78.50 159.13 $1.50 5.2%
> NEW PICKS
> The positions that we find favorable (and will track every week)
> will be marked by asterisks. Do not enter these trades unless you
> fully understand the strategy and various methods of manipulating
> the position should the stock price drop or rise and in the event
> you decide you want to keep the issue.
> Note: A slightly reduced section this week as my partner in "time"
> is vacationing in the winter wonderland in Moscow.
> ****
> CLRS - Clarus $115.50 *** B2B Sector Sizzles ***
> Clarus develops, markets and supports Web-based electronic
> commerce applications and client/server financial and human
> resources applications. Clarus' applications enable organizations
> to gain control of their operational resources and reduce the
> total cost of ownership by minimizing the time, costs, and risks
> associated with implementing, changing, and upgrading the appli-
> cations. Almost all of its products are sold as application
> suites. Clarus' Commerce line of products leverages Web
> technology to connect large populations of employees, management,
> and suppliers in continuous planning, monitoring, and control of
> resources. The Clarus line of products are based on a flexible,
> open architecture called Active Architecture, which allows for
> seamless, rapid changes and upgrades without modifying the source
> code.
> Though Clarus posted a fourth quarter loss ($0.47), they beat
> estimates by 13 cents. The company also reported record revenues,
> increasing 170 percent while their E-commerce license fees were
> up 200 percent. The resulting coverage by JC Bradford and Salomon
> Smith Barney (JC Bradford quickly upgraded to a "strong buy"),
> caused an immediate reverse in the post-earnings drop. Several
> new agreements have also helped ignite the new uptrend, with
> the latest, a broad-based agreement Wachovia.
> The technical pattern is quite favorable with the support provided
> by the January and mid-February high offering a reasonable entry
> point.
> Action Month & Option Open Closing Cost Monthly
> Req'd Strike Symbol Interest Price Basis Return
> Sell Call MAR 90 RUR CR 142 27.63 87.87 4.6% ***
> Sell Call MAR 95 RUR CS 117 23.88 91.62 7.0%
> Sell Put MAR 80 RUR OP 148 0.94 79.06 7.4% ***
> Sell Put MAR 85 RUR OQ 36 1.50 83.50 11.6%
> Sell Put MAR 90 RUR OR 66 2.31 87.69 17.3%
> Chart =
> http://www.optioninvestor.com/charts/charts.asp?symbol=CLRS
> ****
> FNSR - Finisar $139.81 *** Record Revenues/Earnings ***
> Finisar is a provider of fiber optic subsystems and network per-
> formance test systems which enable high-speed data communications
> over Gigabit Ethernet-based local area networks and Fibre Channel-
> based storage area networks. They are focused on the application
> of digital fiber optics to provide a line of high-performance,
> reliable, value-added optical subsystems for networking and
> storage equipment manufacturers. Finisar's fiber optic systems
> include GBIC transceivers, optical multiplexers, link extenders,
> protocol analyzers and data generators for Fibre Channel networks.
> Recently, Finisar's FLX-2000 Fibre Channel Link Extender was
> qualified by EMC Corporation for use with EMC's Symmetrix
> Enterprise Storage and Connectrix Enterprise Storage Network
> systems. Last week, Finisar reported a record 84 percent
> increase in revenues and record pro forma net income increase
> of 189 percent. Finisar's revenues have grown at a compounded
> growth rate of 94% for the last five years.
> Though some post-earnings weakness was expected, Finisar only
> powered on above its February high. The technical pattern
> continues to remain favorable with the 1st level of support
> around $115.
> Action Month & Option Open Closing Cost Monthly
> Req'd Strike Symbol Interest Price Basis Return
> Sell Call MAR 110 FQY CB 22 33.38 106.43 6.4% ***
> Sell Call MAR 115 FQY CC 3 29.75 110.06 8.5%
> Sell Put MAR 95 FQY OS 10 1.69 93.31 10.8% ***
> Sell Put MAR 100 FQY OT 50 2.38 97.62 14.9%
> Sell Put MAR 105 FQY OA 14 3.25 101.75 19.8%
> Sell Put MAR 110 FQY OB 15 4.00 106.00 23.8%
> Chart =
> http://www.optioninvestor.com/charts/charts.asp?symbol=FNSR
> ****
> IMNX - Immunex $219 *** Split play ***
> Immunex is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops,
> manufactures and markets innovative therapeutic products for the
> treatment of human diseases including cancer, infectious diseases
> and immunological disorders. The Company's major product lines
> are Enbrel, Leukine, Novantrone and Thioplex. Enbrel is a soluble
> tumor necrosis factor receptor used to reduce inflammatory
> activity in patients with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis.
> Leukine is a granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor that
> is used to stimulate infection-fighting white blood cells.
> Novantrone and Thioplex are chemotherapy drugs that are used to
> treat pain in cancer patients. Immunex is also developing products
> to address ailments such as inflammatory disease, infection,
> multiple sclerosis, asthma and cancer.
> Recent news for Biotech leader IMNX was the approval of NOVANTRONE
> (mitoxantrone for injection concentrate). Now the big news is
> the announced 3-for-1 split of its common shares in the form of a
> stock dividend. The record date of this stock split is March 6.
> The split should occur around March 20, while the March option
> expiration is Friday, March 17. With momentum players jumping on
> every stock split, it is no wonder that Credit Suisse First Boston,
> raised its price target for Immunex to $300 a share.
> The move Wednesday was strong though there should be time to grab
> some naked put option premium. The chart remains extremely bullish
> as Immunex has broken out into blue sky territory. Any pullback
> in the next few days should inflate the conservative positions
> listed below.
> Action Month & Option Open Closing Cost Monthly
> Req'd Strike Symbol Interest Price Basis Return
> Sell Put MAR 160 QUV OL 547 1.25 158.75 5.3%
> Sell Put MAR 165 QUV OM 503 1.75 163.25 7.3% ***
> Sell Put MAR 170 QUV ON 388 2.31 167.69 9.5%
> Chart =
> http://www.optioninvestor.com/charts/charts.asp?symbol=IMNX
> ****
> INSP - InfoSpace.com $238 *** Not just an Internet company***
> InfoSpace.com provides private label solutions for content and
> commerce to Websites and Internet appliances. The company's
> affiliate network include a number of online giants such as
> America Online, Microsoft Network and Lycos. The cornerstone of
> InfoSpace.com's content and commerce services is its nationwide
> yellow pages and white pages directories. In addition to its
> directory services, the company also distributes other valuable
> information in order to help web users locate people, places and
> things in the real world.
> InfoSpace.com provides services for a unique area of cyber-space.
> The Internet is best known for providing information and allowing
> communication. InfoSpace.com helps improve the quality of these
> activities for Web sites and their customers. Their services are
> utilized by more than 2,500 consumer Web sites, e-tail merchants
> and wireless communications companies. They also have a number of
> infrastructure tools to boost their own brand identity. Today,
> Infospace announced that it intends to drop the dot com from its
> name to reflect the Company's position as the leading provider of
> commerce infrastructure services to the off-line world through
> Regional Bell Operating Companies, merchant banks and other local
> media networks.
> Any name change that gets you into blue sky territory is fine by
> this writer. Infospace didn't even blink after its split in
> January, as its price continued to climb up strongly, never
> violating its 13 dma. The move today was supported by strong
> volume and the consolidation area around $190 should provide some
> near term support.
> Action Month & Option Open Closing Cost Monthly
> Req'd Strike Symbol Interest Price Basis Return
> Sell Put MAR 175 FHY OO 600 1.00 174.00 3.9%
> Sell Put MAR 180 FHY OP 303 1.81 178.19 7.0% ***
> Sell Put MAR 185 FHY OQ 115 2.13 182.87 8.1%
> Chart =
> http://www.optioninvestor.com/charts/charts.asp?symbol=INSP
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jul 27 2000 - 14:04:26 MDT