Alexander Chislenko wrote:
>Actually I think that IF can be further improved by
>introducing opinion derivatives, and then underlying
>knowledge derivatives, which would gradually turn the
>market from a system balancing individual opinions
>on the forecasts, to the system reasoning on the
>combined knowledge of its participants, shared on
>economic principles.
Yes, once you have markets directly in the things you
want estimates for, you can probably help improve those
estimates by extending a network of markets on related
topics. People could then specialize in improving the
estimates of particular links in the network.
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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