Re: Voting and Idea Futures - and hypereconomy

From: Robin Hanson (
Date: Fri Jan 21 2000 - 07:28:10 MST

Alexander Chislenko wrote:
>Actually I think that IF can be further improved by
>introducing opinion derivatives, and then underlying
>knowledge derivatives, which would gradually turn the
>market from a system balancing individual opinions
>on the forecasts, to the system reasoning on the
>combined knowledge of its participants, shared on
>economic principles.

Yes, once you have markets directly in the things you
want estimates for, you can probably help improve those
estimates by extending a network of markets on related
topics. People could then specialize in improving the
estimates of particular links in the network.

Robin Hanson
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

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