At 09:40 AM 1/15/00 -0800, hal@finney.org wrote:
>
>A while back we had some discussion of the Doomsday principle, which
>says that a randomly chosen person is likely to be about halfway in
>the lifetime of the human race (ordered by birth date), and hence if we
>think of ourselves as randomly chosen this applies to us. Given that
>the human race is growing exponentially, it follows that we likely to
>be near the end of the human race, chronologically.
>
>The same principle applies to other phenomena which have exponential
>growth, such as fads. By the time the typical person first hears of them,
>the fad is likely to have just about run its course.
>
>In the case of StockGeneration, although there have apparently been
>people who invested years ago and made good money, the typical person
>who invests will be near the end of the curve (assuming rapid growth).
>That means us. Now that we have heard of it, the site will probably
>cease operations before long.
>
>Hal
According to SG, they currently have about 150,000 accounts.
Because of poor customer service and bandwidth constraints --
most of the time access to their website is difficult -- their growth
is unlikely to be much greater than 5,000 new accounts per month.
I always operate on the basis that a program like SG could be
gone tomorrow -- as I've indicated in another post, I "close the
risk window" as soon as appropriate.
The probability may be good that SG will be around for another
year or two.
Frederick Mann
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